Newsline Canada
 

Bank Economists Warn (Canadian) Economy 'Worse Than a Recession' http://www.digitaljournal.com/print/article/260819 Where is the Canadian economy headed? Well. the economists who work for Canada's Big Five Banks are warning that the future is looking grim. They claim the domestic economy's current gloom will deepen into something worse than a recession. "You have to invent a new word to describe what we're in now," said Bank of Nova Scotia chief economist Warren Jestin. Jestin made his comments after the banks presented their perspectives at the Economic Club. "It's being driven through the financial markets into the real economy. All of those things suggest that it's entirely different than what you might expect from a typical recession." Scotiabank economists predict recessions for both the U.S. and Canada, economic slides that will require central bankers in both countries to cut interest rates by at least a full percentage point. All five banks are in agreement a slide in commodity prices bodes ill for the Canadian economy, which is heavily dependent on the production and export of oil and gas, metals and minerals. Drops in oil and metals prices are already impacting a teetering Toronto Stock Exchange which on Monday took an agonizing 1,200-point fall before recovering somewhat to sit around 700 points in the red as oil dropped to trade around the US$90 mark. Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter said prices will continue to take a beating over the next year, dragging Western Canada's formerly booming economy in particular down with them. "You're going to be seeing Western Canada come back down to the rest of us with a thud, especially if commodity prices keep doing what they've done in the last three months," he said. "It's almost as if the markets are pricing in a much harder landing for commodity prices. I think that's reasonable if you don't get some thawing in the credit markets relatively soon." The direction of Canada's economy depends on whether the financial-sector troubles in the United States start to settle down. "At this point, if this kind of volatility keeps up, I think we're looking at a much more serious downturn than the mild recession that most of us are talking about," he said. "Over the next month, that's what bears watching." Don Drummond of TD Bank feels the Canadian economy won't see any growth until late 2009. Drummond told the Economic Club audience that even at that point there will be only a gradual recovery. "I think the credit system is going to be mucked up for quite some time, even if it improves somewhat," he said. Jestin is somewhat more optimistic about the loonie's direction, predicting that it will hold above the 90-cent threshold as it weathers the financial downturn. "I still think the fundamentals on the Canadian currency -- those that initially drove it through parity and kept it quite strong by recent history-- are largely intact," he said, pointing out that Canada's trade numbers still look favourable compared to many other developed countries. On the other hand, Craig Wright, chief economist at RBC Financial Group, predicted the loonie would slide "just under" 90 cents by the end of next year. The loonie was down 1.78 cents to 90.68 cents US Monday morning. "For Canada, exports are going to be a continued challenge by weakness in the U.S., but we're still relatively bullish on the Canadian economy," he said. "Trying to do a economic forecast in this kind of turmoil is a bit like trying to put a value on your house while the kitchen is on fire,"Portere said. "You just don't know how long the fire is going to go on for, or how much damage it's going to do." How will this outlook affect the Canadian federal election?

Recent Immigrants Having Tough Time In Toronto: Report Excerpts from CBC News http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2008/10/07/vital-signs.html Tuesday, October 7, 2008 A new report tracking the quality of life in Toronto suggests the city is divided into haves and have-nots, especially when it comes to recent immigrants. The Toronto Community Foundation's annual Vital Signs report shows a growing disparity between the rich and poor. The report, which claims to be a snapshot of life in Toronto over the past decade, shows immigrants are hired half as often as other Canadians — and when they are, it's for half the pay. Betya Nacheva, an example of the immigrants mentioned in the report, had a successful professional life in Bulgaria where she was an employment counsellor. Working in low-paying jobs 'wasting time' Life in Canada the past 16 months has been difficult. Nacheva says it's "wasting time" to work in low-paying jobs.  "It's not the best way and it's not enough [money]." But the Vital Signs report says that for immigrants like Nacheva, attempting to avoid being swallowed into dead-end, survival jobs will be a challenge. "We're seeing ... recent immigrants have been struggling greatly. So we can only expect ... downward economic pressures of the next while. We're going to create an even more hostile environment," said Rahul Bhardwaj, CEO of the Toronto Community Foundation, which sponsored the report. Saad Imam is another example. He hasn't been in Canada for long — only about a year and half. But already he's facing the fate of so many immigrants who arrived after 1990. Imam, an accountant in Pakistan, can only find work in Toronto as a security guard. It is not enough to get by taking into account his rent and the cost of his part-time studies. "Right now I'm under financial stress. I borrow money to support my education," he said. Bhardwaj says that for new immigrants, the 10 years since amalgamation in Toronto has been a "lost decade." "They've been hired half as often and when they do get hired, it's for half the pay," he said. Median income of non-immigrants up, immigrants down The median income of non-immigrant Canadian families increased by over five per cent from 2000 to 2005, according to the report, but the incomes of immigrant families fell by one per cent, and recent immigrant families [those in Canada less than five years] fell more than three per cent. What Bhardwaj finds most troubling is that the immigrants who largely make up the poor families in the city came during good economic times. The typical reasons for the lack of equality, according to the report, are lack of recognition for international credentials and lack of recognition for the skills of immigrants. The report is not all bad news. "We're producing less waste," says Bhardwaj, "using less water, more people are using public transit and in spite of how it appears, crime is down."  With files from the Canadian Press

Politicians Lack The Vision And Courage To Address Health Care http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/October2008/06/c3332.html?view=print OTTAWA, Oct. 6 /CNW Telbec/ - A new poll done for the Canadian Medical Association (CMA) shows Canadians believe politicians are avoiding health care in this general election because they lack the vision and courage to tackle the tough issues. "In this election, Canadians are looking for leadership on health and they are clearly not seeing it," said CMA President, Dr. Robert Ouellet. "Canadians believe our politicians are afraid to talk about what is really needed to fix our health care system." The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid for the CMA, shows that most Canadians are critical of their country's leaders when it comes to addressing the problems facing Canada's health care system. Seven in ten say that Canada's leaders lack either the vision (41%) to fix such a complex issue or are afraid (30%) to take on such a politically sensitive issue as health care. The poll also found that three in four Canadians (74%) say that federal politicians are not spending enough time talking about the future of the health care system in the current federal election. The same number also says that political parties should have a comprehensive health care policy that includes a plan to address the doctor shortage. The CMA is working to change that fact through the release today of a new Voters' Guide to the Issues featuring responses on key health issues of four of the five major parties running in the federal election. The Conservative Party was the sole party that declined to send in a response. "It's important that Canadians know where the parties stand on health and health care," said Dr. Ouellet. "Our Voters' Guide should help Canadians make an informed decision." The poll also shows that Canadians continue to rank health care as one of the most pressing issues requiring action by the next newly elected government. The poll found a virtually equal number identifying the economy (32%) and health care (31%) as the most critical issue. Taxes (13%), the environment (12%), crime (9%) and international issues (5%) trail significantly. "Our politicians should listen to their constituents they want to represent in Parliament," said Dr. Ouellet. "Canadians want them to start talking about what they are going to do to improve health care and provide timely access to quality health care." Within the broad area of the health care system, 65% of Canadians polled said addressing the shortage of doctors should be a top priority (9 or 10 on a scale of 0 to 10). This is followed by addressing the shortage of other health care professionals (54%), improving the efficiency of the system (52%), the overall quality of health care (48%), access to MRIs, X-rays and other diagnostic equipment (45%), access to affordable prescription drugs (44%), access to mental health care (30%), and finally the lack of an electronic medical record (18%). "Canada's doctors have been saying for some time that we need more hands on deck - more doctors, nurses and other health care professionals - working in the system," added Dr. Ouellet. Ipsos Reid conducted an online survey of 1,026 adult Canadians from Sept. 24 to 26, 2008. This sample provides a +/-3.1% margin of error for the overall national findings 19 times out of 20. Click Here for full results of the poll and the Voters' Guide.

Suspected serial bank robber turns himself in Friday, October 3, 2008 | CBC News http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2008/10/03/robberies-ontario.html?ref=rss A Toronto man suspected of robbing more than two dozen financial institutions turned himself in Friday, a day after a banking group offered a $10,000 reward for information leading to his arrest. Kevin Pinto, 37, was arrested by Toronto police and charged with 10 counts of robbery. Police believe Pinto — dubbed the Exchange Bandit — has been robbing banks across southern Ontario for the past five years. The robberies began in 2003 at a number of financial institutions across Toronto and Peel region, expanding west to Kitchener, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls in 2004, Toronto police said in a release issued Friday. While no robberies connected with the same suspect were reported in 2005 and 2006, they resumed in Toronto, Cambridge and Oakville in 2007. The latest took place on Sept. 12 at a Scotiabank branch in downtown Toronto. The suspect's description, photographs, actions, words spoken and clothing were similar in each of the robberies, according to police. "The same suspect is thought to be responsible for over 26 financial institution robberies," the release said. The Canadian Bankers Association on Thursday announced it was offering $10,000 for information leading to an arrest in the robberies. In a prepared statement announcing the reward, the director of security for the CBA, William Crate, said: "We hope that this reward will lead to the information needed to stop this criminal.  "We need the help of the community and that's where this reward comes in." Pinto is set to appear in a Toronto court on Saturday. More on Kevin John Pinto Investment executive's robbery charges may grow 'Exchange Bandit' Natalie Alcoba, National Post Published: Monday, October 06, 2008 An investment firm executive accused of robbing banks in Toronto could face more criminal charges as police investigate whether he is behind other unsolved holdups in the Greater Toronto Area and beyond. Kevin John Pinto, 37, turned himself in to Toronto police on Friday, a day after the Canadian Bankers Association put up a $10,000 reward to capture the man dubbed the "Exchange Bandit" because of conversations he had with tellers, before he told them he was armed and passed them a holdup note. The most recent alleged robbery occurred at a King Street Scotiabank branch just minutes from where Mr. Pinto worked as the vice-president of compliance at Paradigm Capital. Police in Peel Region's central robbery unit say Mr. Pinto is a suspect in two armed robberies that occurred there in 2003.

220+ Of Canada's Leading Economists Call For Action On Climate Change Open Letter to leaders of Canada's federal political parties -- http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/October2008/06/c3777.html?view=prin Tuesday Oct. 7, 2008 OTTAWA, Oct. 6 /CNW/ - More than 230 economists teaching in Canadian universities have signed an open letter to federal political leaders calling for economically coherent action on climate change. Among the signatories are some of Canada's top economists, including current and past presidents of the Canadian Economics Association, and holders of Canada Research Chairs and the Order of Canada. "Economists disagree on many things, but on what needs to be done about climate change there is considerable agreement," explains Ross Finnie, one of the three authors of the letter and an Associate Professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa. "The signatories come from a wide range of political persuasions and will vote for different parties, but we all agree that effective policies for addressing climate change must be based on sound economic principles. Our goal is to help inform public debate on climate change at a time when people are really paying attention to this issue - during the federal election. Our hope is that whichever party forms the next government will act on these principles." "It's remarkable how much agreement there is among economists on this key point - the best climate change policy is to put a price on carbon," says Nancy Olewiler, another of the authors and director of SFU's Public Policy Program. David Green, the third author and professor at UBC, adds "We also want people to be clear that all policies that alter carbon emissions will affect the prices they face - some more than others." The signatories agree on these 10 principles: Canada needs to act on climate change now. Any substantive action will involve economic costs. These economic impacts cannot be an excuse for inaction. Pricing carbon is the best approach from an economic perspective. a) Pricing allows each business and family to choose the response that is best and most efficient for them. b) Pricing induces innovation. c) Carbon is almost certainly under-priced right now. Regulation is the most expensive way to meet a given climate change goal. A carbon tax has the advantage of providing certainty in the price of carbon. A cap and trade system provides certainty on the quantity of carbon emitted, but not on the price of carbon and can be a highly complex policy to implement. Although carbon taxes have the most obvious effects on consumers, all carbon reduction policies increase the prices individuals face. Price mechanisms can be regressive and our policy should address this. A pricing mechanism can allow other taxes to be reduced and provide an opportunity to improve the tax system. The full letter and a list of signatories can be found at www.econ-environment.ca

Canada’s Population by Province. Source: http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo02a.htm Population by year, by province and territory (Number)   2003 2004 2005 2006 2007   persons (thousands) Canada 31,676.1 31,995.2 32,312.1 32,649.5 32,976.0 Newfoundland and Labrador 518.4 517.3 514.1 509.9 506.3 Prince Edward Island 137.3 137.9 138.2 138.0 138.6 Nova Scotia 936.5 938.0 936.0 935.1 934.1 New Brunswick 751.2 752.0 751.3 749.2 749.8 Quebec 7,494.7 7,549.0 7,598.0 7,651.0 7,700.8 Ontario 12,262.6 12,420.3 12,565.4 12,705.3 12,803.9 Manitoba 1,161.9 1,170.6 1,174.2 1,178.5 1,186.7 Saskatchewan 994.7 994.9 990.0 987.5 996.9 Alberta 3,161.4 3,208.2 3,280.7 3,370.6 3,474.0 British Columbia 4,155.4 4,203.8 4,260.2 4,320.3 4,380.3 Yukon Territory 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.0 Northwest Territories 42.2 42.8 42.7 42.4 42.6 Nunavut 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.4 31.1 Note: Population as of July 1. Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table (for fee) 051-0001 Last modified: 2007-11-29.

Visible Minority Population of Canada   Visible minority population, by province and territory (2001 Census) (Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan)   Canada Que. Ont. Man. Sask.   number Total population 29,639,035 7,125,580 11,285,550 1,103,695 963,150 Total visible minority population 3,983,845 497,975 2,153,045 87,110 27,580 Black 662,210 152,195 411,095 12,820 4,165 South Asian 917,075 59,505 554,870 12,880 4,090 Chinese 1,029,395 56,830 481,505 11,930 8,085 Korean 100,660 4,410 53,955 1,040 635 Japanese 73,315 2,830 24,925 1,665 435 Southeast Asian 198,880 44,115 86,410 5,480 2,600 Filipino 308,575 18,550 156,515 30,490 3,030 Arab/West Asian 303,965 85,760 155,645 2,100 1,475 Latin American 216,975 59,520 106,835 4,775 2,005 Visible minority, not included elsewhere 98,920 7,555 78,915 2,070 420 Multiple visible minority 73,875 6,705 42,375 1,860 640 Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population. Last modified: 2005-01-25.

For more statistical information, consult 2001 Census