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Newsletter. Issue 2008-24. November 22, 2008

 
 
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Newsline Canada
 

Bank of Canada Governor, Carney, says Canadian economy getting worse, hints at further rate cuts
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article

OTTAWA — The Canadian economy is deteriorating faster than previously thought and will require further stimulus, says Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney. Carney signalled strongly Wednesday that the central bank will reduce short-term interest rates again on Dec. 9 in an effort to boost economic activity.

"Despite having already cut official interest rates in half over the past year and having a financial sector that is still functioning effectively, some further monetary stimulus will likely be required to achieve the inflation target over the medium term," he said in notes from a speech to a business audience in London, England.

Carney did not predict Canada would fall into a recession, defined as two consecutive negative quarters of growth. But in admitting that the economy was weaker than projected by the central bank last month, when it forecast a fourth-quarter contraction and meagre 0.6 per cent growth in 2009, he appeared to at least acknowledge a recession is a possible.

Recently, the International Monetary Fund downgraded Canadian growth to 0.3 per cent next year, while several private-sector economists have predicted the economy will in fact shrink in 2009 for the first time in 17 years. Carney credited Canada's sound banking practices for sheltering the country from the worst of the financial crisis, but added that the country is nevertheless taking a hit from the global slowdown and deep slump in the United States.

Not only have commodity prices tumbled and the availability of credit tightened, he said, but the nature of the U.S. slowdown - with its pressure points in the housing and auto sectors - affects key Canadian exports of lumber, vehicles and parts.

"Thus, while domestic demand in Canada remains relatively healthy and the depreciation of the Canadian dollar will offset some of the declines in external demand, the risks to growth and inflation... appear to have shifted to the downside."

Carney did not offer a new economic forecast, saying only that the risks have increased and that growth in the gross domestic product will come in below 0.6 per cent. The Canadian economic situation was a sidebar to the main message Carney delivered in London, but it underlined a key point - that even countries like Canada that have their finances in order were helpless to fend off the carnage from the breakdown in U.S. and global financial markets.

He said many countries must reform their systems, but averting another crisis will also require stronger and more vigilant international institutions, such as an effective International Monetary Fund. "Even if the domestic system is sound, there is no guarantee that core financial markets will always be available," he pointed out. "There is a pressing need for international institutions that effectively monitor systemic risk and co-ordinate macroprudential and financial policy reform."

He said the crisis developed in part because of a lack of effective international surveillance. He said Canada's experience - with strong asset-to-capital ratios, less securitization of mortgages, and required insurance on risky mortgages - shows that reforms urged at recent meetings of G7 and G20 leaders would work.
As such, Carney implicitly came down against calls from some quarters for a complete overhaul of the Breton Woods institutions, such as the IMF and World Bank, that have regulated international commerce since the Second World War.

Nor should policy-makers jump at the currently in-vogue proposal to regulate salaries and bonuses in the financial sector, said Carney, whose background is as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs. But he suggested the cure will not be quick and won't be without pain.

To get key markets such as interbank lending and commercial paper working again, he said, central banks may have to inject enough liquidity to in effect become "market makers of last resort."

And the growing importance of bank-based finance following the failure of the market system poses problems of overshooting, he warned. "We should not want the pendulum to swing too far," he cautioned.

He added that higher and desirable requirements for capital by financial institutions could cause banks to "hoard any new capital rather than deploy it" by making credit-worthy loans.
"Doing so would worsen the economic outlook, which would then increase loan losses and further strain capital levels," he noted.

 

Greater Toronto Area Working Poor Need Pay Hike: Study
http://www.policyalternatives.ca/news/2008/11/pressrelease2011/?pa=BB736455
November 18, 2008


TORONTO – In Canada’s most expensive urban area, Ontario’s minimum wage falls far short of what families need for a decent standard of living, says the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

The study, A Living Wage for Toronto, estimates two working parents raising two young children would need to earn $16.60 an hour each, with both parents working full-time and year-round, to be able to live adequately within the Greater Toronto Area.

“There’s a big difference between having enough to survive – and Ontario’s minimum wage doesn’t even do that – and having enough to participate in the life of the community” says study co-author Hugh Mackenzie, CCPA research associate. “The living wage is the income threshold a family has to cross to avoid being marginalized.”

The study takes into account the major costs facing families raising children in the GTA, and estimates how high their wage should be in order to have a decent standard of life.

“We held focus groups with families in the GTA to confirm our estimates reflected the reality of everyday living,” says co-author Jim Stanford, CCPA research associate. “We discovered that while it covers the basics, our living wage number is still quite modest.

“So many GTA families struggle to pay the rent and put food on the table. They’re working hard, making a major contribution to our economy. It’s only fair that the work they do lifts them out of poverty, and allows them to lead a healthy, full life.”

The study is released in advance of this weekend’s Good Jobs Summit, being organized by the Toronto & York Region Labour Council to improve the quality of jobs in Toronto.

Click to download summary report: A Living Wage for Toronto

 

Ontario At 'Crossroads,' Report On Youth Violence Warns
Friday, November 14, 2008 CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2008/11/14/mcmurtry-curling.html


A report released Friday November 14, 2008 on youth violence in Ontario says too many young people are being caught up in violence fuelled by poverty and racism. The Roots of Youth Violence report, authored by former cabinet minister Alvin Curling and former Ontario chief justice Roy McMurtry, was ordered by Premier Dalton McGuinty following the May 2007 shooting death of Jordan Manners.

Manners, 15, was shot and killed inside C.W. Jefferys Collegiate Institute.

"We strongly believe Ontario is at a crossroads in dealing with the roots of violence involving youth," said McMurtry. "Our report presents the government with a comprehensive framework to address the serious trends we have identified and that will have serious consequences if allowed to continue unchecked."

The Curling-McMurtry report makes 30 recommendations — key among them is a call for increased mental health care for Ontario children, as well as a controversial suggestion to gather race-based statistics. Although the report points to "deeply troubling trends" when it comes to youth violence in Ontario, it also attempts to provide some solutions.

One of the primary suggestions is for $200 million to provide improved mental health care for students, and social workers and counsellors in communities where potentially troubled youth can access them.

Race-based statistics needed: McMurtry

The report also calls for the collection of race-based statistics in areas like education and health. McMurtry told a news conference at Queen's Park that without those statistics there is no way to fix the problems. "The community now wants these statistics, and I've spoken with [Toronto police] Chief Bill Blair and he is not opposed to the idea," said McMurtry. But Blair's boss, Mayor David Miller, who attended the news conference, does not support the idea.

The race-based statistics, called "floor targets" in the report, are necessary so that "racial and other relevant differences [may] be tracked as the province measures progress towards outcome goals," the authors said in a prepared statement.

"The province should commit to measuring and publishing progress towards defined outcome goals as a central part of its approach to the roots agenda. To the greatest extent possible, the outcome goals should include minimum standards of achievement, a level below which no institution or community should fall," said the report.

The statistics could be used to track education and health trends.

The report also took aim at so-called zero tolerance in schools. Curling said too many students are being driven away for minor infractions. "Many young people are being criminalized. They have a record at a very young age — that itself has to be looked at and how we can deal with that," he said. Toronto District School Board chair John Campbell says maintaining discipline and safety is not easy.

"I can't say that is always the case, or it's a frequent occurrence, but principals are in a position where they have to keep their schools safe," he said. Progressive Conservative critic Julia Munro said the report's main goal seems to have been to gather information, and it includes no quick fixes..

Munro said the Ministry of Children and Youth Services was created to help deal with issues brought up in the report, which leaves her wondering why it hasn't been addressing them.

 

Under Obama, Web Would Be the Way
Unprecedented Online Outreach Expected

Excerpt from: washingtonpost.com
By Shailagh Murray and Matthew Mosk
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, November 10, 2008; A02


CHICAGO -- Armed with millions of e-mail addresses and a political operation that harnessed the Internet like no campaign before it, Barack Obama will enter the White House with the opportunity to create the first truly "wired" presidency.

Obama aides and allies are preparing a major expansion of the White House communications operation, enabling them to reach out directly to the supporters they have collected over 21 months without having to go through the mainstream media. Just as John F. Kennedy mastered television as a medium for taking his message to the public, Obama is poised to transform the art of political communication once again, said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist who first helped integrate the Internet into campaigning four years ago.

"He's going to be the first president to be connected in this way, directly, with millions of Americans," Trippi said.

The nucleus of that effort is an e-mail database of more than 10 million supporters. The list is considered so valuable that the Obama camp briefly offered it as collateral during a cash-flow crunch late in the campaign, though it wound up never needing the loan, senior aides said. At least 3.1 million people on the list donated money to Obama.

Millions more made up the volunteer corps that organized his enormous rallies, registered millions of voters and held countless gatherings to plug the senator to friends and neighbors. On Election Day, they served as the backbone of Obama's get-out-the-vote operation, reaching voters by phone and at the front door, serving coffee at polling stations and babysitting so parents could stand in line at voting precincts. After Obama declared victory, his campaign sent a text message announcing that his supporters hadn't heard the last from the president-elect. Obama conveyed a similar message to his staff in a campaignwide conference call Wednesday, signaling that his election was the beginning, and not the culmination, of a political movement.

Accordingly, the president-elect's http://www.change.gov transition Web site features a blog and a suggestion form, signaling the kinds of direct and instantaneous interaction that the Obama administration will encourage, perhaps with an eye toward turning its following into the biggest special-interest group in Washington.

Staff writer Alec MacGillis in Washington contributed to this report.

 

Enrolment Decline Slows At Catholic Board
http://www.northpeel.com/printArticle/59682
Tuesday November 4 2008


Enrolment numbers at the Catholic school board are down from this time last year, according to an administrative staff report. Dufferin-Peel Catholic District School Board schools reported a total of 87,665 registered students on Oct. 6- representing 53,821 elementary and 33,844 secondary school students. At the elementary school level, enrolment has decreased 1,092 from this time last year. At the high school level, enrolment has increased by 535. The numbers translate into an overall board-wide enrolment decrease of 0.63 per cent or 557 students from a year ago, according to the report.

At a recent meeting, Planning and Operations Superintendent John Melito told trustees the rate of decline is less than it was last year. A year ago, enrolment figures submitted to the Ministry of Education reported 88,222 registered students- 54,913 elementary and 33,309 secondary. Overall, the board had experienced an enrolment decline of about 1 per cent or 846 students from the previous year. Fewer elementary school students were primarily to blame.
 
The last few years, Dufferin-Peel has seen small declines in overall enrolment and the trend is expected to continue.  The local Catholic school board is not unlike most boards in the province. Education ministry officials were expecting enrolment in 60 of Ontario's 72 public schools to shrink in 2008/2009.

Peel District School Board was one of the few board's in the province not projected to see overall decline.

Education Minister Kathleen Wynne has said the government and school boards need to start having serious discussions about declining enrolment and develop a system-wide strategy to deal with the decreasing student population. The ministry has established and declining enrolment work group to take a close look at the issue. Ministry and school board officials will try to develop a plan to address the impact on the system and its ability to still provide needed student programs.

 

Dufferin-Peel Catholic District School Board School Closures
Excerpt from: http://www.dpcdsb.org/CEC/News+and+Info/Latest+News/Board
November 14, 2008


At a special meeting held last night, culminating a year-long review and public consultation process, the Dufferin-Peel Catholic District School Board approved the closure of one school in the Central Erin Mills Review Area of Mississauga. The school, Blessed Trinity, was one of five elementary schools in the Review Area under consideration for closure or consolidation. With the trustees’ decision, Blessed Trinity School will close at the end of June 2009, and students will be redirected to St. Rose of Lima for the 2009-10 school year. A staff report considered by trustees had recommended the closure of both Blessed Trinity and St. Rose of Lima.

Over the past year, the Board has conducted the Pupil Accommodation Review process mandated by the Ministry of Education to consider possible school closures. The Board appointed an Accommodation Review Committee consisting of parents, teachers, and administrators to consider numerous accommodation options for the Central Erin Mills area. The Committee met on six occasions and convened four public meetings last spring to secure input from the community. Two additional public meetings were convened in September by the Board to receive delegations from the public regarding the possible school closures in the area.

Declining enrolments in the Central Erin Mills area necessitated the review of area school facilities. September 2008 statistics indicate that enrolment at Blessed Trinity has decreased to 103 students. St. Rose of Lima School has an enrolment of only 94 students in the regular school program, with another 160 students enrolled in specialty gifted and extended French programs, who are bused from neighbouring areas to the school.

A number of factors are generating declining elementary school enrolments in certain neighbourhoods in Peel Region. These factors include: the graduation of children of baby boomers from the elementary school system, young couples delaying marriage, lower birth rates per household and healthy empty nesters remaining in their homes.

This is not the first time that Dufferin-Peel has closed schools due to declining enrolment in specific areas. In 2003, the Board determined that it had to close three schools in the Malton community to respond to declining enrolments in that community. Children were transferred to other local schools in the neighbourhood and trustees wish to reassure parents that they have experienced administrators and teachers who will be able to work with students and families to make the transition to the new school as smooth as possible.

“Closing any school is a difficult process, but the board must make responsible decisions to ensure that students are attending schools with a viable school population to offer the best academic programs possible. At the same time, we must be fiscally responsible,” said board chair Bruno Iannicca.

Special Board Meetings regarding the two additional areas under review will be held at the Catholic Education Centre, 40 Matheson Boulevard West, Mississauga For a detailed synopsis of the Pupil Accommodation Review Process in Dufferin-Peel, visit the board website at www.dpcdsb.org. The Dufferin-Peel Catholic District School Board is one of the largest and most diverse school boards in Ontario. It serves approximately 88,000 students in 145 schools located throughout Mississauga, Brampton, Caledon and Orangeville. With over 10,000 employees, the board is also one of the largest employers in the region.


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