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Inflation Risks Loom Down The Road As Money Is Printed To Battle Recession: CIBC Threat is higher for the U.S. than for Canada TORONTO, April 6 /CNW/ - CIBC (CM: TSX; NYSE) - Canada appears likely to adopt a much milder version of the U.S. and U.K. strategy of printing more money to fight the recession, a tricky measure that risks high inflation, or even hyperinflation down the road, notes a new report from CIBC's wholesale banking arm. "Printing money looks to be a key ingredient in preventing a global recession from tipping into a lasting depression," says Avery Shenfeld, chief economist, in his latest report. "A more aggressive monetary posture today should presumably hasten an economic recovery, and diminish the odds of an extended disinflationary period. However, it also raises the risk that policy makers will mishandle the timetable for unwinding unprecedented amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus, leading to run-away inflation," notes Mr. Shenfeld. Printing money - formally known as quantitative easing - is a strategy where central banks use newly created money to buy government bonds that finance spending programs. Those extra dollars in the economy spur growth but can also shrink the buying power of each dollar, which is the definition of inflation. "Excessive inflation is indeed a hazard after a winning battle against deflation," says Mr. Shenfeld who believes inflation risks are greatest south of the border. With the U.S. "facing a sharp climb in government debt and a household sector similarly over-borrowed, inflation could be a tempting way to shrink the real value of those burdens. And even without a deliberate plan, it would be easy to err and unintentionally overdo the money pump-priming, or reverse it too late." Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Mark Carney has downplayed expectations that the Bank will implement quantitative easing in April, Mr. Shenfeld notes. But "considering the deteriorating economic outlook, and with core inflation set to drop below the 1-3% band by late this year, further monetary stimulus will be required." Rather than announce an overnight interest rate cut in isolation, Mr. Shenfeld expects the BoC will "stand pat" in April and launch a Canadian-styled quantitative easing or credit easing program within the next three to six months. Canada's "gentler" approach will entail buying government bonds or other credits to lower longer term interest rates, while taking steps to neutralize the impact on money supply growth and overnight interest rates. "The BoC is much more committed to its strict inflation target. And Canada's government debt burden, while again on the rise, will still be much lower than Washington's, creating less of a temptation to simply inflate it away. Even so, Governor Carney will have his work cut out for him as he attempts to keep yields and long-term inflation expectations down with money supply growth already on steroids," says Mr. Shenfeld. If the Bank of Canada goes down the path of quantitative easing and a recovery takes hold, the first dose of monetary retightening will not be an overnight rate hike but more likely entail reversing the BoC's asset purchases by selling bonds back to the secondary market, says Mr. Shenfeld. "Anticipating that response, we've pushed back any Bank of Canada overnight rate hikes beyond our end-of-2010 forecast horizon." Mr. Shenfeld adds that "even if a spike in inflation doesn't materialize in the U.S., monetary retightening will be accompanied by substantially higher rates across the curve, as the Fed unwinds its balance sheet moves by selling bonds that it accumulated under a monetization mandate. That has us retaining our bearish view on long bonds, particularly Treasuries, with Canadas set to outperform. Meanwhile, to the extent that loose global monetary policy, including quantitative easing, boosts inflation concerns, that should be a positive for a commodity-linked currency like the Canadian dollar farther down the road." Elsewhere in the inflationary-themed report, Senior Economist Benjamin Tal writes that a recovery in oil prices beyond 2010 will heighten already soaring food inflation and force a fundamental change in agriculture and food systems. "The foundation of the modern agri-food system has rested on cheap energy, given the need to maximize yields in the face of constraints on arable land supply. But a recovery in oil prices, and the potential impact of environment policies to restrain its use, will turn this model on its head," he says. "The current disconnect between food inflation and overall inflation is an early sign of the upcoming changes in the economics of food. While fuel prices will remain subdued through 2010, a global recovery will have them rising more materially again beyond then, particularly if carbon taxes or emissions permits are imposed. In an effort to reduce energy intensity, farmers will increase organic food production whereas the food system as a whole will reduce its dependency on imports, and will become much more localized." The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/sapr09.pdf CIBC's wholesale banking business provides a range of integrated credit and capital markets products, investment banking, and merchant banking to clients in key financial markets in North America and around the world. We provide innovative capital solutions and advisory expertise across a wide range of industries as well as top-ranked research for our corporate, government and institutional clients. For further information: Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist, CIBC WorldMarkets Inc. at (416) 594-7356, avery.shenfeld@cibc.ca  or Tom Wallis, Communications and Public Affairs at (416) 980-4048, tom.wallis@cibc.ca

Ontario - Profs Blast Lazy First-Year University Students, Says (they) expect success without the requisite effort http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/614219 Excerpts from Toronto Star April 06, 2009 | Kristin Rushowy | Education Reporter University professors feel their first-year students are less mature, rely too much on Wikipedia and "expect success without the requisite effort," says a province-wide survey to be released today. And guess what? In this case, many students agree with their profs. "I think it's a fair assessment," said first-year Ryerson journalism student Annie Webber. "I'm addicted to Wikipedia." Lina Kim, a fourth-year University of Toronto sociology student who works in the U of T's Robarts Library, agrees. "Many students can't even ask for help. Partly, it's generational, the attitude and sense of entitlement they have," Kim said. More than 55 per cent of Ontario's faculty and librarians surveyed believe students are less prepared for university than even three years ago. In fact, many post-secondary institutions have had to create catch-up courses to help those who are struggling. "It wasn't a shock for me – I'm aware of what's happening out there," said Brian Brown, a University of Windsor visual arts professor. He also heads the Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations, which oversaw the online survey of about 2,000 professors and university librarians out of the province's 15,000. "What the questionnaire reveals is a serious challenge that we are facing in the system. We are teaching students from what is basically an under resourced secondary school system." To read more Click here.

Even as economy tanks, immigrants continue to flood in http://www.southasianfocus.ca/community/article/67201 Wednesday April 1 2009 Even as Canada's economy was stalling fourth-quarter 2008, new immigrants were making a beeline for our shores. Statistics Canada reported our population grew 0.19 per cent during the period, the fastest fourth-quarter growth rate since 1992. As of Jan 1, 2009, Canada's population was an estimated 33,504,700, up 63,400 from Oct 1, 2008. During the fourth quarter of 2008, the net international migration to Canada rose to 35,700, an increase of 7,700 compared with the same period in 2007. Alberta continued to be the province posting the country's highest demographic growth. At 0.60 per cent, the pace is more than triple the national rate. The population growth of Ontario (+0.08 per cent) continued to be below the national level.

Pope Benedict Prays for Refugees on Palm Sunday http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-04-05-voa17.cfm  By Sabina Castelfranco | Rome 05 April 2009 Pope Benedict XVI celebrated Palm Sunday Mass in Saint Peter's Square. He also prayed for the many African victims that every year embark on a dangerous sea crossing of the Mediterranean to reach Europe, but fail to reach their destination. Pope Benedict's thoughts on Palm Sunday were for the thousands of illegal immigrants who every year attempt a perilous journey from Africa to Europe in search of a better life. During the Angelus prayer, he recalled Africans who just days ago lost their life in the Mediterranean. "We cannot resign ourselves to such tragedies," he said, "which unfortunately, have been taking place for some time." The head of the Roman Catholic Church said the scope of the problem calls for increasingly urgent strategies coordinated by the European Union and African states. He said it also calls for the adoption of adequate humanitarian measures so immigrants are not compelled to turn to unscrupulous human traffickers. Earlier, Pope Benedict celebrated Palm Sunday Mass, which marks the start of the Christian Holy Week and commemorates Jesus Christ's triumphant entry into Jerusalem. Under blue skies and bright sunshine, thousands of tourists and faithful from different nationalities waved palm leaves or olive branches during an open air service in Saint Peter's Square. Palm Sunday mass is also dedicated to young people who celebrate World Youth Day in local dioceses. Many of those in the square Sunday were Australian and Spaniards. At the end of the ceremony, young people from Australia, where the last World Youth Day was held in the presence of the Pope, handed a wooden cross to young people from Madrid, where the next World Youth Day will be celebrated. The Pope says tomorrow the cross and the icon of the Virgin Mary will head to the Spanish capital for the Good Friday procession. Then it will start a long pilgrimage, visiting the dioceses in Spain, and return to Madrid in the summer of 2011. Holy Week is one of the busiest times in the Christian calendar for Pope Benedict. He will preside over a number of solemn ceremonies, including the Good Friday remembrance of Christ's crucifixion and a mass on Easter Sunday, when Christians celebrate his resurrection.

150,000 People To Join Catholic Church In America Published : April 02 2009 http://www.indiancatholic.in/news/storydetails.php/11713-1-1-150,000-people-to-join WASHINGTON (Zenit.org): Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich, became Catholic on Sunday, the first of thousands that will join the Church at Easter.  The U.S. bishops' conference reported Tuesday that around 150,000 are scheduled to join the Catholic Church this Easter. The press release noted that "the numbers show the growth and vitality of the Catholic Church in places where it has traditionally been a small minority." The Archdiocese of Atlanta estimates that 513 catechumens, who have never been baptized, and 2,195 candidates, who were baptized in another Christian community and are seeking full communion with the Catholic Church, will enter the Church this year, not including infant baptisms. Father Theodore Book, director of the office of Divine worship for the archdiocese, affirmed: "The Archdiocese of Atlanta is in a part of the country with a large non-Catholic population, and has been blessed with an authentic dynamism during recent years, which is perhaps best expressed in our annual Eucharistic congress, which draws some 30,000 participants. "One of the many blessings that we have received from the Lord is the large number of individuals entering the Church."  The Archdiocese of Seattle expects 736 catechumens and 506 candidates to enter the Church, while the Diocese of San Diego will welcome 305 catechumens and 920 candidates. The Diocese of Birmingham, Alabama, had to plan three different ceremonies for the Rite of Election, at the beginning of Lent, to accommodate the 445 people in process of becoming Catholic. One Californian, Heidi Sierras, was chosen to represent North America at the Easter Vigil celebration in the Vatican, where she will be baptized by Benedict XVI. Last year's Catholic directory reported that adult baptisms in the United States totaled 49,415 in 2007, with 87,363 people coming into full communion with the Church.

Why Kofi Annan is a worried man By Bernard Namunane | The Daily Nation - Nairobi | Posted Saturday, April 4 2009 Is Kenya still on the road to reform? Kofi Annan, who presided over the mediation talks that gave birth to the National Accord, says it is. Mr Annan, who hosted a delegation of government and civil society officials in Geneva, Switzerland, to conduct an audit of the grand coalition government, praised President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga for saving Kenya. “Kenyans should be proud for having brought the country back from the brink of disaster. If the parties had not agreed to enter into negotiations at an early stage and made concessions because they understood what was at stake, the ethnic dimension of the violence could have made things worse,” he said. At stake was the unity of the nation, the pride of Kenyans – whose country had been described as the beacon of hope for Africa – stability and the economy. A dispute over the results of the presidential election drove the country to the brink of a civil war. Mr Annan, former Tanzanian president Benjamin Mkapa and former South African First Lady Graca Machel, stepped in to find a solution, bringing together President Kibaki of the Party of National Unity and Mr Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement to sign the National Accord and consequently form the Grand Coalition Government. The National Accord provided the road map to constitutional, legal and institutional reforms. It also laid down ways of tackling poverty, correcting inequality and regional imbalances, handling youth unemployment and promoting national cohesion. It also proposed land reforms and ways of dealing with corruption and impunity. Mr Annan says the framework that is already in place will ensure far-reaching reforms that should “fundamentally transform the Kenyan society for the better”.